Energy Demand Forecasting for a District in Tamilnadu, India - An Analytical Approach

Abstract

A realistic and reliable estimation of future energy demand of a district is an important step in energy planning, both at the micro and at the macro levels. A number of analytical and mathematical models are available for making the estimation at the macro level. However, due to lack of adequate data, these models have to be simplified so as to arrive at a reliable figure for micro models. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict the future energy demand of a district in India based on the past trends and the socio-economic parameters such as GDP, population growth and per capita income, both at the local and national levels. The future energy demand pattern fuel-wise is analyzed. This paper also discusses the steps needed to meet the anticipated future energy demand.