A System Dynamic Energy Economic Assessment Model for Road Transportation

Abstract

The road transport sector is highly dependent on conventional energy resources that account for approximately 20% of a country’s primary energy. This figure will certainly increase in the upcoming years due to the growth in population, leading to an increase of vehicles in the country, therefore increasing the consumption of fuel. Limited, poorly managed public transportation and the increase in the number of registered cars has led to an increase in emissions produced that contribute to environmental factors including air pollution and noise, as well as carbon dioxide (CO2), and other greenhouse gases. This paper evaluates the economic impact of implementing energy efficiency strategies in the transportation sector using a system dynamic model and associated scenario analysis that can be applied to Bangladesh. Transportation data was collected and analyzed using Stella, a visual programming language for system dynamics modeling, to develop the energy economics evaluation model. Hence, the economic effect of various alternative scenarios for emission reduction and fuel consumption enhancement was identified and evaluated. It was estimated that the economic savings that would be achieved by adopting the 70/30 and 50/50 scenarios on private vehicles for the year 2027 were $74, 800, 00 and $124,700,000 respectively. Therefore, a significant reduction of approximately 60.35% is expected in financial terms. This demonstrates that along with emission and fuel consumption reduction, the proposed strategies will also achieve substantial financial savings.