Thailand Net Zero Emissions 2050: Analyses of Decarbonized Energy System Beyond the NDC

Rathana Lorm, Bundit Limmeechokchai

Abstract


The energy sector in Thailand has shared most of the total country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for decades. This sector needs accelerating decarbonization targets to push the country's net emissions to a neutral level. Thailand's current energy system has not fully utilized renewable energy, energy efficiency enhancements, and electric vehicles to their full potential. Carbon capture and storage (CCS), as a great technology for capturing and storing carbon emissions, has not been integrated into fossil fuel-based power plants. Furthermore, hydrogen fuel has not yet reached a large-scale implementation level in the decarbonized energy system, despite being recognized as a promising choice for a zero-GHG emissions energy carrier. This article evaluates the combination of technology deployments to assess the possibility for Thailand to reach the climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The LEAP-NEMO analysis tool is used to implement the Reference, More Ambitious, and Net Zero Emissions 2050 (NZE) scenarios. In the NZE scenario in 2050, renewable energy accounts for 25% of final energy consumption and 71% of electricity production, while electric vehicles account for 80% of the total vehicle fleet in road transportation, whereas natural gas-based power plants equipped with CCS technology play an important role in decarbonized power generation.

Keywords


Clean Hydrogen; Decarbonized Energy System; LEAP and NEMO; Net Zero Emissions; Renewable Energy

Full Text:

PDF

References


IPCC., 2023. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001.

UNFCCC., 2015. Paris Agreement. 2015. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [Online Serial], Retrieved December 15, 2023 from the World Wide Web: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/parisagreement_publication.pdf

IPCC., 2018. Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. doi: 10.1017/9781009157940.001.

DEDE. 2022. Energy Statistics in Thailand. Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy [Online serial] June 15, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://www.dede.go.th/articles?id=174&menu_id=67

EPPO. 2023. Electricity Statistics in Thailand. Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy [Online serial], Retrieved June 15, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://www.eppo.go.th/index.php/en/en-energystatistics/electricity-statistic

MoNRE., 2022. Thailand’s Fourth Biennial Update Report. Bangkok, Thailand: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Available: https://unfccc.int/documents/624750

MoNRE., 2022. Thailand’s 2nd Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. Bangkok, Thailand: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Available: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-11/Thailand 2nd Updated NDC.pdf

ONEP., 2022. Thailand’s Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (Revised Version). Bangkok, Thailand: Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning. Available: unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Thailand LT-LEDS %28Revised Version%29_08Nov2022.pdf

DEDE., 2020. Alternative Energy Development Plan 2018-2037 (AEDP2018). Bangkok, Thailand: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy. Available: https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Alternative%20Energy%20Development%20Plan%202018-2037%20%28AEDP%202018%29%28TH%29.pdf

DEDE., 2020. Energy Efficiency Plan 2018-2037 (EEP2018). Bangkok, Thailand: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy. Available: https://oldwww.dede.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=54495

EPPO., 2020. Power Development Plan 2018-2037 (PDP2018). Bangkok, Thailand: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy. Available: https://www.eppo.go.th/images/Infromation_service/public_relations/PDP2018/PDP2018Rev1.pdf

Vats G. and Mathur R., 2022. A net-zero emissions energy system in India by 2050: An exploration. Journal of Cleaner Production 352(2022).

Zhang S. and Chen W., 2022. China’s Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision. Engineering 14(2022): 64–76.

Oshiro K., Masui T. and Kainuma M., 2018. Transformation of Japan’s energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050. Carbon Management 9(5): 493–501.

Glynn J., Gargiulo M, Chiodi A., Deane P., Rogan F. and Ó Gallachóir B., 2019. Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement. Climate Policy 19(1): 30–42.

Wang X., Lu Z., Li T. and Zhang P., 2023. Carbon-neutral power system transition pathways for coal-dominant and renewable Resource-abundant regions: Inner Mongolia as a case study. Energy Conversion and Management 285(2023).

Williams J. H., Jones R. A., Haley B., Kwok G., Hargreaves J., Farbes J. and Torn M. S., 2021. Carbon‐Neutral Pathways for the United States. AGU Advance 2(1).

Handayani K., Anugrah P., Goembira F., Overland I., Suryadi B. and Swandaru A., 2021. Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050. Applied Energy 331(2021): 118580.

Handayani K., Overland I., Suryadi B. and Vakulchuk R., 2023. Integrating 100% renewable energy into electricity systems: A net-zero analysis for Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Energy Reports 10(2023): 4849–4869.

Handayani K. and Anugrah P. 2021. Assessing the implications of net-zero emissions pathways: An analysis of the Indonesian power sector. In Proceeding of the International Conference on Technology and Policy in Energy and Electric Power (ICT-PEP). Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 29-30 September. IEEE.

Lorm R. and Limmeechokchai B., 2023. Energy System Transformation to Net Zero CO2 Emissions 2050 in Selected GMS Countries. International Energy Journal 23(3): 187-208.

Dul D. and Limmeechokchai B., 2021. Greenhouse gases mitigation in the road transport towards 2050: Analyses of selected greater Mekong sub-region (GMS) countries. International Energy Journal 21(3): 305–322.

Chunark P., Limmeechokchai B., Fujimori S. and Masui T., 2017. Renewable energy achievements in CO2 mitigation in Thailand’s NDCs. Renewable Energy 114:1294–1305.

Misila P., Winyuchakrit P. and Limmeechokchai B., 2020. Thailand’s long-term GHG emission reduction in 2050: the achievement of renewable energy and energy efficiency beyond the NDC. Heliyon 6(12).

Rajbhandari S. and Limmeechokchai B., 2021. Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets. Climate Policy 21(4): 492–513.

Chaichaloempreecha A., Chunark P., Hanaoka T. and Limmeechokchai B., 2022. Thailand’s mid-century greenhouse gas emission pathways to achieve the 2 degrees Celsius target. Energy, Sustainability and Society 12(1): 1–20.

Chaichaloempreecha A., Winyuchakrit P. and B. Limmeechokchai. 2017. Long-term energy savings and GHG mitigations in Thailand’ s building sector: impacts of energy efficiency plan Assessing the feasibility of using the heat building sector: impacts of energy efficiency plan. In Proceeding of the International on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies. Bangkok, Thailand: 25-26 May. Energy Procedia.

Limmeechokchai B., Winyuchakrit P., Pita P. and Tatsuya H. 2022. Decarbonizing Transport Sector in Thailand Towards 2050. In Proceeding of the 2022 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE) 2022. Pattaya City, Thailand: 26-28 October. IEEE.

Chaichaloempreecha A., Winyuchakrit P. and Limmeechokchai B. 2017. Assessment of renewable energy and energy efficiency plans in Thailand’s industrial sector. In Proceeding of the International on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies. Bangkok, Thailand: 25–26 May. Energy Procedia.

Chhay L. and Limmeechokchai B., 2019. CO2 Mitigation in the Power Sector of Thailand: Analyses of Cleaner Supply-side Options Beyond the Paris Agreement. The Open Environmental Research Journal 12(1): 15–25.

Chaichaloempreecha A. and Limmeechokchai B. 2022. Transition of Thailand’s Power Sector toward Carbon Neutrality 2050. In Proceeding of the 2022 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE). Pattaya City, Thailand: 26–28 October. IEEE.

Pradhan B.B., Chaichaloempreecha A., Chunark P., Rajbhandari S., Pita P. and Limmeechokchai B., 2022. Energy system transformation for attainability of net zero emissions in Thailand. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 35: 27–44.

Heaps C.G. 2023. LEAP: The Low Emissions Analysis Platform. [Software Version 2020.1.101] Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA. [Online]. Available: https://leap.sei.org

Dul D. and Limmeechokchai B. 2020. Potential of Renewable Energy in selected Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Countries to achieve NDCs in 2030. In Proceeding of the 2020 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE). Thailand: 20–22 October. IEEE.

Limmeechokchai B. and Dul D., 2023. Achievement of Paris Agreement in selected Greater Mekong Sub-Region Countries: Analyses of Renewable Electricity and Emissions Gap. GMSARN International Journal 17(3): 252–261.

SEI. 2023. NEMO: Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization. Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA. Available: https://www.sei.org/tools/nemo-the-next-energy-modeling-system-for-optimization/

World Bank. 2023. WDI: World Development Indicators. World Bank [Online serial], Retrieved November 15, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

IIASA. 2023. SSP Database (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-Version 2.0. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Online serial], Retrieved November 15, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=10

NSO., 2021. Household Socio-Economic Survey. Bangkok, Thailand: National Statistics Office. Available: https://ittdashboard.nso.go.th/sector_en.php?id_sector=8

United Nations. 2022. World Population Prospects 2022. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations [Online serial], Retrieved October 10, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://population.un.org/wpp/

United Nations. 2018. World Urbanization Prospect 2018. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Dynamics [Online serial], Retrieved October 10, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://population.un.org/wup/

DLT. 2023. Transport Statistics Group, Vehicle Registration Information. Department of Land Transport. [Online serial], Retrieved October 10, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://web.dlt.go.th/statistics/index.php

NREL. 2023. 2023 ATB: Annual Technology Baseline. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy [Online serial], Retrieved November 15, 2023, from the World Wide Web: https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2023/data

ACE., 2020. The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020-2050. Jakarta, Indonesia: ASEAN Center for Energy. Available: https://asean.org/book/the-7th-asean-energy-outlook-2020-2050/

IRENA & ACE., 2022. Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN towards a regional energy transition. International Renewable Energy Agency. Available: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Sep/Renewable-Energy-Outlook-for-ASEAN-2nd-edition

IPCC., 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri R.K. and Meyer L.A. (eds)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151pp. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

Kovač A., Paranos M. and Marciuš D., 2021. Hydrogen in energy transition: A review. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 46(16): 10016–10035.

IEA., 2023. Global hydrogen review 2023. International Energy Journal. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2023

IEA., 2020. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020. International Energy Journal. https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020

IRENA., 2021. Making the Breakthrough: Green hydrogen policies and technology cost. International Renewable Energy Agency.

Kearns D., Liu H. and Consoli C., 2021. Technology Readiness and Costs of CCS. Global CCS Institute. https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Technology-Readiness-and-Costs-for-CCS-2021-1.pdf

Budinis S., Krevor S., Dowell M. N., Brandon N. and Hawkes A., 2018. An assessment of CCS costs barriers and potential. Energy Strategy Reviews (22): 61–81.