An Assessment of the Cost Effectiveness of a DSM Program in the Southern Part of Thailand
Abstract
Due to the inadequacy of the electrical power supply to meet the demand in the Southernpart of Thailand in recent years, electrical power from nearby areas from the Central part of Thailandand Malaysian needs to be transmitted through high power tie-lines. This often causes some technicalproblems in power transmission systems, particular during peak time period, due to electric powertransmission instability, as affected by the long distances of the tie-lines. As a result, it often blackout in this region. The failure of electrical supply would be worsen as the trend of the electricaldemand generally increases in the future. Traditionally, the solution for this problem is to expandthe transmission lines or install more power generation capacities in this region, but it spends morecosts and time consumes. An alternative to solve this problem is to adopt the Demand-SideManagement (DSM) program to stimulate and implement energy saving program to reduce bothelectrical energy and power peak load demand. In this study, we estimate the potential of theelectrical energy saving and reduction in the averaged power peak in the Southern part of Thailandin the next 10 years, if energy saving program is introduced by encouraging consumers to switch touse more efficient appliances in various sectors.
A regression technique was adopted to predict the demand of the electrical energy in theSouthern part of Thailand in the next decade. It was found that the energy demand highly dependson the two parameters: the Real Gross Regional Products (RGRP) and populations. The result of thepredicted electrical energy demand was then used to estimate the peak demand. Then, the potentialof energy saving amounts were estimated, if more efficient appliances were introduced to replace ofnon-efficient appliances. To simplify the problem, we assumed that only those major commonappliances are replaced by the more efficient appliances as follows: (a) lighting, refrigerators, andair-conditioners for residential sector, (b) lighting and air-conditioners for commercial sector, and(c) motors for industrial sector.
Finally, the benefit of the total saving energy cost and the total investment costs of the high-efficient appliances were analyzed to determine whether it is economical feasible or not. The resultindicates that the alternative solution of the DSM program would be more cost-effective, as comparedto the expansion of new high power tie-lines of the conventional supply side planning.
A regression technique was adopted to predict the demand of the electrical energy in theSouthern part of Thailand in the next decade. It was found that the energy demand highly dependson the two parameters: the Real Gross Regional Products (RGRP) and populations. The result of thepredicted electrical energy demand was then used to estimate the peak demand. Then, the potentialof energy saving amounts were estimated, if more efficient appliances were introduced to replace ofnon-efficient appliances. To simplify the problem, we assumed that only those major commonappliances are replaced by the more efficient appliances as follows: (a) lighting, refrigerators, andair-conditioners for residential sector, (b) lighting and air-conditioners for commercial sector, and(c) motors for industrial sector.
Finally, the benefit of the total saving energy cost and the total investment costs of the high-efficient appliances were analyzed to determine whether it is economical feasible or not. The resultindicates that the alternative solution of the DSM program would be more cost-effective, as comparedto the expansion of new high power tie-lines of the conventional supply side planning.